“The 2015 UK General Election will be the closest in living memory”. “The result of the first cricket match this year between England and Australia shows that England will do well during the rest of the matches”. The 2015 UK General Election was won decisively by the Conservative Party, and the second cricket match of 2015 was decisively won by Australia. The experts who speak for hours, and who write millions of words have as much idea as my eight year old son.
I book I like is called Black Swan. It was written by a former investment banker, Nassim Taleb. In his years as a banker he saw that the many analysts who advised him typically had little or no idea what was going to happen. He argues that most experts contribute very little.
Every year there are many very significant events, which nobody can begin to predict. I wonder how much time we would save if we listened to a few less experts. Of course, some of them are fun to listen to.
A problem with experts in the mainstream is that they are given a status above what us reasonable. They also look at things throughout their own paradigm. Take a group of education experts, a group of health experts, a group of security experts; they will typically look at things in a quite conventional way. People who disagree with the experts are seen as weird, which of course is not the case.
It is of course important to say that technical experts are indeed expert in their field. My gripe us more with people who claim to see the future, but in fact have no idea.
Let’s see what the next Black Swan event will be in 2015.